Avatar: The Way of Water sets a new box office record in Europe

Even getting to second place is a tall order for Avatar 2. The film will need to beat Avengers: Endgame with its $2.8 billion total for the runner-up spot. This means that the Avatar sequel needs to earn a solid $532 million more at the box office.

At this point, it's safe to say that Avatar: The Way of Water can only firmly establish itself at the No. 3 spot.

It also doesn't help that Avatar: The Way of Water has been encountering some stiff opposition recently. Marvel's Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania claimed the top spot at the US domestic box office for two weeks in a row. The recent release of Cocaine Bear and Jesus Revolution has also pushed Avatar 2 down the ladder to fourth place.

At its current pace, Avatar: The Way of Water needs to extend its theatrical run by another 27 weeks to catch up to 2009's Avatar. An extended theatrical run is in the realm of possibility for James Cameron's Avatar 2. However, each subsequent weekend at the box office will earn less than the week before, extending the goalpost even farther out.

The original Avatar ran for 34 weeks during its initial release. However, it is unlikely that Avatar: The Way of Water can stay that long in theaters, considering the lineup of new movies coming in the next few months.

March features a strong lineup including John Wick: Chapter 4, Scream 6, Creed III, and Shazam! Fury of the Gods. It will make the task of dethroning Avatar that much harder for the sequel.