Baldur’s Gate 3, developed by Larian Studios, has undoubtedly taken the gaming world by storm. With its full launch on August 3, the game managed to achieve an impressive peak of 875,343 concurrent players on Steam – a number that still stands to this day.
Such a statistic was unanticipated even by Swen Vincke, the founder of Larian Studios. Projecting only a modest turnout of around 100,000 players, he admitted that the actual numbers exceeded his wildest expectations. The game’s current player base, even more than a month after its release, is hovering close to a substantial 200,000.
Yet, despite such groundbreaking success, the game’s journey before this landmark achievement was not without its fair share of skepticism and underestimation.
An email leak, resulting from the FTC v. Microsoft case, revealed that Microsoft had severely underrated Baldur’s Gate 3, referring to the soon-to-be-award-winning D&D title as a “second-run Stadia PC RPG. This email, which dates back to May 2022, also disclosed a table indicating Microsoft’s evaluations of upcoming games for a potential feature in one of the most popular video game subscriptions on the market, the Game Pass.
To put things into perspective, games like Star Wars Jedi: Survivor and Dragon Ball: The Breakers were rated based on a so-called “wow factor. In stark contrast, Microsoft marked Baldur’s Gate 3 as a “Hub” and pushed it to the bottom of the list.
Fast forward to a year later and the only reason why people are talking about Star Wars Jedi: Survivor right now is the departure of its director and its backport to the PlayStation 4 and the Xbox One.
On the other hand, Baldur’s Gate 3 is selling just as well on the PC as it is on the PlayStation 5, outpacing even Starfield at times – a rare feat given the disparity in marketing budgets and strength of their respective studios.
What’s perhaps the biggest irony of this situation is how much Microsoft underestimated Baldur’s Gate 3. Microsoft set aside $5 million to secure the game’s inclusion on the Game Pass. In comparison, Star Wars Jedi: Survivor’s asking price was $300 million. Baldur’s Gate 3’s price estimate was more alongside Return to Monkey Island and Let’s Sing ABBA – two titles that, regardless of quality, barely make any noise outside of their fanbase.
Michael Douse, the Publishing Director, humorously stated that everyone else had made the same error in judgment, and the unpredictability of the genre combined with Larian’s unique approach and execution meant that there was no way to anticipate how Baldur’s Gate 3 would perform. But, is that really the case?
Baldur’s Gate 3’s potential was always evident. The game, which had been available in early access for years, allowed a glimpse of its quality. It was never about the capability of Larian Studios; they had previously showcased their prowess with the Divinity: Original Sin series. The true astonishment came from the sheer magnitude of the game’s reception.
Microsoft’s miscalculation became even more evident when they had to amend their policies for Baldur’s Gate 3 to be on the Xbox. The game, which lacked a split-screen co-op feature on Xbox Series S, was initially denied. However, with the overwhelming success of the game, Microsoft conceded, allowing Baldur’s Gate 3 to launch without that particular feature on Xbox Series S.
And while Microsoft isn’t missing out much given the success of Starfield, it could’ve had a chance to add more to its embarrassment of riches on the Game Pass – an integral part of its current and future plans. Hopefully, it knows better by now to do their due diligence better.
If it’s any consolation, Microsoft and Xbox aren’t the first to make the same mistake. Sony, for instance, missed out on an opportunity with FromSoftware and Demon’s Souls. Similarly, Microsoft had once overlooked GTA 3, doubting Rockstar Games’ transition to 3D.
Ultimately, it’s these instances that remind us of just how unpredictable the gaming industry can be. It doesn’t matter how much data or expertise one might have, there are times when a game can break the mold, transcend expectations, and carve a niche for itself. Baldur’s Gate 3, against all odds and amidst underestimations, has not only emerged as a gaming titan but also underlined the fact that true potential can never be truly quantified until it unveils itself.
