The final DCEU superhero film “Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom” appears to be facing troubled waters at the box office, with recent reports suggesting a less-than-stellar Christmas haul.
The DC Extended Universe had been effectively abandoned after DC Studios Co-CEOs James Gunn and Peter Safran announced their plans to overhaul. Due to delays, reshoots, and rescheduling, Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom became the last entry in the cinematic franchise. But with the poor reception for The Flash and Blue Beetle, can the Jason Momoa-led sequel be the exception and make a big splash?
According to Deadline‘s analysis on December 19th, industry experts anticipate a modest domestic box office performance of around $40 million during the film’s four-day opening weekend. Internationally, the outlook isn’t significantly brighter for the James Wan-directed sequel.
(WATCH) Jason Momoa and director James Wan intro #Aquaman2 at the LA premiere and cherish what may be the last time Momoa plays the DC character after his 12 year journey as Aquaman pic.twitter.com/hy0pUumjke
— Deadline Hollywood (@DEADLINE) December 19, 2023
Launching in 73 markets, including the lucrative Chinese market, Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom is projected to earn between $75 million and $80 million, with a potential peak of just $110 million through Sunday.
These sobering projections signal a notable decline compared to its predecessor, 2018’s Aquaman which achieved a domestic box office take of $105 million during its first four days in theaters. The international opening weekend of the original film also boasted an impressive $172 million, marking nearly a 50% increase over the most optimistic predictions for “Lost Kingdom.”
Compounding the financial challenges, Variety reports that the sequel incurred a substantial production cost of $215 million. Following the industry standard that a film must at least double its budget to break even, the second Aquaman film would need a minimum final box office of $500 million to avoid financial struggles.
Adding to the film’s woes, if the projected numbers hold true, the Aquaman sequel could face a less successful opening weekend than the MCU’s “The Marvels,” which grossed a pathetic $47 million domestically and $63.3 million internationally during the same period.
Two primary factors contribute to the challenging prospects for Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom. Firstly, DC Studios co-CEO James Gunn’s announcement of a cinematic roadmap reboot signaled to audiences that the established DCEU continuity would have limited relevance to the franchise’s future. Gunn’s statement that “nothing is canon” prior to Creature Commandos and Superman: Legacy further diminished enthusiasm for interconnected story elements.
James Gunn gives some clarity on the DCU:
“Nothing is canon until Creature Commandos next year – a sort of aperitif to the DCU – & then a deeper dive into the universe with Superman: Legacy after that. It’s a very human drive to want to understand everything all the time, but I… pic.twitter.com/iiK0MqGWyD
— Home of DCU (@homeofdcu) September 27, 2023
Another point of discussion potentially affecting the Aquaman sequel’s box office numbers is the controversial presence of Amber Heard, reprising her role as Mera. Heard’s publicized legal battles with ex-husband Johnny Depp and revelations about her behavior have made her a divisive figure, leading to audience disinterest and potential boycotts.
Beyond these two key factors, there is the apathy DCEU fans have been collectively feeling. After the promise of the DCEU continuing with Henry Cavill’s cameo in Black Adam, Gunn and Safran’s clean slate approach practically doomed the fate of the remaining films in production. Plus, the cameo of Ben Affleck as Bruce Wayne has been removed from the final cut of Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom.
In a recent interview with ET’s Ash Crossan in London, Jason Momoa, who plays Aquaman, acknowledged that this might be his last appearance as the legendary King of Atlantis. Momoa shared insights into the evolving DC film landscape, expressing his love for the character and a desire to play it for a long time. But he admitted the uncertain future, stating, “It’s not looking too good.” As the DC Universe undergoes a transformation under Gunn and Safran, Momoa hopes to remain part of their plans, even if not necessarily playing his breakout role as Aquaman.
Jason Momoa is having doubts about the future of Aquaman.https://t.co/yf1ixmAXxg
— Entertainment Tonight (@etnow) December 15, 2023
With the release of Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom, the industry and fans alike eagerly await its reception over the Christmas weekend. Will the film defy expectations and become a surprise hit? Or will it face a lackluster reception similar to other DC and Marvel films this year? What are your thoughts and personal forecast for the critical and box office success of Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom?
